The European Commission published a study estimating the climate change mitigation potential of 19 CAP Strategic Plans for the 2023-2027 period. It concludes that these Plans have the potential to significantly contribute to climate objectives in the land sector, with an estimated mitigation potential up to 31 million tonnes of CO2e per year, mainly in carbon sequestration and reduction of emissions from soil.
Crop rotation or diversification, expansion of cover crops, and conversion to organic farming are the three farming practices that contribute the most to the estimated mitigation potential (overall 78%). In terms of CAP instruments, eco-schemes account for 38% of the estimated mitigation potential and environmental and climate commitments under rural development for 30%.
The analysis further indicates a potential positive contribution to the protection of existing carbon sinks of 29 million tonnes of CO2e yearly across the 19 CAP Strategic Plans covered by the study. Support to the maintenance of organic farming accounts for more than half (54%) of the estimated protection potential, followed by forestry maintenance (or management) (22%) and grassland protection (18%).
It is to note that the mitigation and protection potentials are estimated on a yearly basis so they could be delivered every year from 2023 to 2027. Whether these potentials will be fully realised and the magnitude of their contribution to the 2030 climate objectives, will depend on the final uptake of the measures, and their yearly additionality also in comparison to the previous CAP programming period, which is not possible to assess at this stage.
The resulting analysis sets a starting point for the development of a further refined methodology using Member State data on actual uptake of measures and more precise mitigation coefficients for supported farming practices. On the other hand, it can contribute to the reduction of the current high level of uncertainty in the national inventory of emissions and removals in the land sector. The study involves recommendations addressed to national authorities in that regard. The Commission keeps working and engaging closely with all Member States to improve the action, monitoring and reporting related to CAP Strategic Plans and climate change mitigation.
The 2024 Climate Action Progress Report published by the European Commission in October 2024 showed that agricultural emissions decreased by 2% between 2022 and 2023 while maintaining or increasing its production to ensure food security for all EU citizens. Work is ongoing to keep progressing, notably on carbon sequestration.
CAP Strategic Plans allocate 32% of the total CAP budget to voluntary actions advancing the environmental, climate and animal welfare objectives. 35% of the EU's farmland should benefit from actions for both carbon sequestration and reduction of nitrous oxide emissions. There is also progress on protection of sustainable management of natural resources, with substantial efforts on soil protection, with voluntary practices covering 47% of EU farmland. Beyond the CAP, many EU funds, such as LIFE, Horizon Europe (in particular the Mission Soil), and the Cohesion Funds are available to encourage carbon removals.
Background
The EU has the ambition to become climate neutral by 2050. All sectors have to play their part, including the agriculture and the land sector, by reducing emissions and by contributing to increasing the EU carbon sink (in soils, in landscape features etc.).
On the path to 2050, it is crucial to assess the impact of policies so that Member States are able to programme adequate measures to put them firmly on track to their climate targets.
The study published today analyses the potential contribution of 19 CAP Strategic Plans, covering 18 Member States, to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, enhancing carbon removals, and conserving existing carbon stocks. It establishes, for the first time, the link between the instruments planned in CAP Strategic Plans by Member States and their mitigation potential at EU level but does not account for the contribution of other policies and measures implemented in Member States beyond the CAP Strategic Plans, and their mitigation and protection potential.
The estimation process delivers rough estimates with levels of uncertainty contingent on the information available in the CSPs, the applied mitigation coefficients and the assumptions made to estimate the area on which the farming practice is applied.
The 18 Member States cover collectively 92% of the European utilised agricultural area and encompass around 95% of the estimated EU GHG emissions from agriculture. The Member States covered are Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden.
The 31 million tonnes of yearly estimated potential contribution of the 19 CAP Strategic Plans are distributed between 9 million tonnes of GHG emission reduction and 22 million tonnes of enhanced carbon sequestration per year. These estimated yearly potential effects account respectively for 2.6% of the estimated emissions reported under United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Common Reporting Format (CRF) sector 3 – Agriculture in 2021 for the EU-18, and for 10.9% of the estimated net removals reported under CRF Sector 4 – LULUCF. At the same time, they represent 43% of the difference between 2021 emissions levels and the figure associated with agriculture for 2030, and 56% of the required increase in sink capacity to achieve the LULUCF 2030 target, for the EU-18.
Next steps
The study will be completed with the addition of the remaining 9 CAP Strategic Plans, planned for early 2025.
Meanwhile, capacity building activities involving Member State’s relevant authorities have been launched to train national experts in the implementation of the study methodology to improve the precision of the estimations.